Checking in on the Train to Las Vegas
Another land purchase supports more optimism
When I’m talking to clients it’s very common for them to first ask “What’s happening in the market?” and then at the end of the conversation throw in “And what about the train?” It doesn’t rate highly enough for people to ask early on, but everyone is curious.
“The train” has gone by various names over the years but is now known as Brightline West.
Usually I just tell people that I only know what’s in the newspaper, although that’s not always the case. Recently I noticed through recorded sales data that Brightline had acquired 10.9 acres in Hesperia. The land is located on Mariposa Road, which fronts I-15.
Here’s a screenshot from the Grant Deed.
If you look at Brightline’s filings with the Federal Railroad Administration then you will see that they have been planning for a Hesperia station, along with a power station which is generally located in the area of this recent land purchase.
The Brightline West Hesperia Station would be located at Joshua Street and I-15. As shown here:
Brightline has also filed an Operating Assumptions Plan with the FRA, which gives some clue as to the travel times that they are expecting for services. For the first 10 years of operation they expect to depart from Rancho Cucamonga every 45 minutes, and then total time to Las Vegas would be two hours and twenty minutes.
The southbound times shown in the plan are similar.
The most interesting thing from the schedule is the 23 minute Hesperia to Rancho Cucamonga leg. You could imagine that leg being attractive to some commuters. I have no idea if the cost, or the other realities of travel upon arriving in Cucamonga, will support a lot of commuter usage of the train.
There’s another issue that’s hard to ignore when you look at the schedule, and look at the fact that Brightline seems to have acquired the land to support the Hesperia power station1. That is: what about the Apple Valley station?
A few years ago Brightline acquired about 300 acres of land at Dale Evans Parkway in Apple Valley. It was supposed to be part of Brightline’s plan to build transit-oriented development around their project.
Let me detail some issues that I think investors buying land around that proposed Apple Valley station should consider before they buy:
Most of the land surrounding the location is vacant today. In the future it is zoned for a mix of commercial, industrial, and low-density residential. So who would the station serve? It seems like it’s competitive with the Hesperia station, and the Hesperia station easily serves more potential customers.
Even if you assume that Brightline’s land could support some kind of development around the station, 300 acres isn’t really a master-planned community. It doesn’t seem like enough critical mass.
The station will cost something to build, and will add to the total travel time to Las Vegas. If you were running the project wouldn’t you just remove that station from the plan?
Brightline does own the land surrounding the proposed Apple Valley station location, but they are also probably ahead on that bet today. They could probably sell the land at a profit.
Part of the problem with the project over the years is that it didn’t seem to make a lot of sense. Who wanted to drive to Victorville, and then get on a train and end up in Las Vegas? To shave 30 minutes or an hour off of the travel time? Who cares?
However, the project looks very different today. It could serve a real market - people who want to travel from Rancho Cucamonga to Las Vegas2. Also, Las Vegas has become something of a powerhouse. They’ve come out of the pandemic and gone back to all time highs in visitors. Also, they did it without much convention business and without a lot of international travelers. The Raiders move has been a huge success and the city will probably get more sports teams.
The combination of the land purchases, and the overall project seeming more sensible, offer some good reasons to be optimistic that eventually we’ll see this train become a reality. However, I do think it’s worth paying attention to what happens related to that proposed Apple Valley station location.
Fake promoters hire PR people to drum up action in the media. Real developers buy land.
By my count there are seven daily roundtrip flights from Ontario to Las Vegas, which you could add to the I-15 traffic to get a total demand picture.